After setbacks across Europe, is the populist far right losing ground?

Three votes across Europe in recent days have dealt setbacks to the populist far right.

In France, centrist and left-leaning forces won in Paris and Lyon during local elections that ended Sunday, securing mayoral and city council seats. They also won in France’s second-largest city, Marseille, where the far-right party, the National Rally (RN), had hoped to gain a foothold after making some gains in the first round.

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In Slovenia’s parliamentary election on Sunday, liberal Prime Minister Robert Golob’s Freedom Movement (GS) edged out the right-wing former Prime Minister Janez Jansa’s Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS).

And in Italy, voters dealt a blow to right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in a constitutional referendum, rejecting her flagship judicial reforms in a referendum widely seen as a test of her leadership.

Taken together, the results suggest Europe’s far right – buoyed in recent years by concerns over migration, inflation and identity politics – may be struggling to convert momentum into decisive electoral victories, but analysts urge against jumping to long-term conclusions.

Could the populist far right have hit a ‘hard ceiling’?

Recent results may indicate that steam is running out, but they could also reflect isolated setbacks, analysts say.

“The results from this weekend paint a genuinely mixed picture, and anyone selling a clean narrative is oversimplifying”, Gabor Scheiring, an assistant professor at Georgetown University in Qatar, told Al Jazeera.

Socialist Party (PS) Member of Parliament and left-wing Paris mayoral candidate Emmanuel Gregoire celebrates during a gathering following the second round of France’s 2026 municipal elections in Paris on March 22, 2026 [AFP]

In France, the RN “fell short where it mattered most,” failing to win in Marseille, Toulon, and Nimes while left-wing and centrist alliances held Paris, Marseille, and Lyon.

Yet the hard right had also consolidated its grip on smaller towns and won control of dozens of mid-sized municipalities, Scheiring said.

“The far right didn’t collapse but seems to have hit a ceiling in major cities while expanding its base elsewhere”, he said, adding that Eric Ciotti, president of another far-right party, the Union of the Right for the Republic, won in Nice, France’s fifth-largest city.

The RN will be pleased with some of its advances, David Broder, a historian and Europe editor for Jacobin magazine specialising in far-right movements, told Al Jazeera.

Newly elected mayor of Nice Eric Ciotti, second left,  walks the streets to meet the residents the day after his election, in Nice, southeastern France, March 23, 2026 [Valery Hache/AFP]

Broder said RN’s focus was not on the larger cities, but rather on small towns in France, where they performed well.

Their polling position is “better than ever”, he argued.

“But the question that remains is whether there’s a hard ceiling … and whether they’re going to fall short of having an absolute majority of voters, which I think remains possible.”

In November, an Ipsos poll had either far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who may not be allowed to run due to embezzlement charges, or RN leader Jordan Bardella as the winners of the 2027 presidential election. French pollster Odoxa said Bardella would win the election, regardless of who his opponents may be.

Slovenia’s centrist victory: ‘Important but narrow’

Slovenia’s Golob defeated his right-wing rival, Jansa, by just 29 seats to 28 in a tight contest, resulting in a weakened left-leaning bloc in the parliament and setting the stage for difficult coalition negotiations.

In Slovenia, the picture is “even more ambiguous” than in France, Scheiring said, describing the centrist victory as “important, but very narrow”.

Before the vote, there was some controversy surrounding a report alleging that Jansa had met officials from the Israeli spy firm Black Cube.

Slovenia’s Prime Minister Robert Golob, left, addresses the supporters of The Freedom Movement party after the General Elections results are released in Ljubljana, Slovenia, on March 22, 2026 [AFP]

However, Italy’s Prime Minister Meloni’s defeat in a referendum on her justice reforms represents a “significant rebuke”, Scheiring said.

About 53.5 percent voted against it, and 46.5 percent for, with a higher-than-expected turnout of more than 58 percent.

The result weakens Meloni domestically heading into next year’s general election, Scheiring said.

“What we’re seeing is … something more of a slowing of momentum in some places, combined with continued entrenchment in others,” he explained. “The relentless advance has slowed down, particularly where opponents managed to unite tactically – as in Marseille – or where far-right leaders overreached – as Meloni did with the referendum. But the underlying support base remains largely intact,” he said.

The problem with personality cult

Populism today is often centred around charismatic leaders, such as Meloni, who can be a real political asset, but this strategy can leave parties dependent and “vulnerable” to setbacks associated with strong personalities, said Broder.

He said a similar pattern can be seen in Hungary, which is due to hold a general election on April 12.

There, he said, Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s dominance shapes the political landscape. But his party may “lack depth” beyond his own cult of personality, and despite his efforts to frame elections around global leadership and geopolitics, “many voters are ultimately driven by more practical concerns, such as economic performance and rising energy costs.”

Supporters of the Fidesz party and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, march and hold placards and flags during a demonstration on March 15, 2026, in Budapest, Hungary [Janos Kummer/Getty]

However, it is often those issues that can ensure far-right support remains intact, Scheiring said, adding that results in France, Slovenia and Italy may demonstrate how short-term electoral dynamics and oscillations mean the populists are “not invincible when opponents play the electoral game intelligently,” but they also reveal little about the long-term trajectory.

He pointed to persistent economic stagnation, declining real wages, the effects of deindustrialisation on provincial economies, and housing costs squeezing younger generations across Europe as structural factors that have led to the rise of the far right.

Drawing on past cycles, Scheiring described an “illiberal pendulum” in which the far right surges, falters, and allows the political centre to regain ground temporarily.

“But if the centre simply governs under the banner of ‘we’re not the far right’ without addressing the structural problems … the pendulum swings back,” he said, warning that recent results may amount to tactical victories rather than a lasting shift.

Looking ahead, the results of Denmark’s snap election will emerge later on Wednesday. Polls are suggesting the centre-left Social Democrats could remain the largest party in Denmark’s parliament, despite a push by right-wing populists, who are calling for tougher immigration policies.