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The killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a United States-Israeli air campaign has sent shockwaves through the Middle East, decapitating the leadership of the “axis of resistance” at its most critical moment.
For decades, this network of groups allied with Iran was Tehran’s forward line of defence. But today, with its commander-in-chief dead and its logistical arteries cut, the alliance looks less like a unified war machine and more like a series of isolated islands fighting desperate survival wars.
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In an exclusive interview with Al Jazeera Arabic, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi insisted that the Islamic Republic does not need its proxies to fight its battles.
“We do not expect anything from anyone,” Araghchi said when asked about the role of allied militia groups. “We can defend ourselves by ourselves. … We do not want any party to help us in our self-defence.”
This statement creates a striking paradox: Just as Tehran claims it stands alone, its most powerful proxy, Hezbollah, has officially entered the fray—not necessarily to help Iran, but to save itself.
Hezbollah: Preempting the inevitable
In Beirut, the caution of the first 48 hours has collapsed.
On Monday, Hezbollah launched a rocket barrage targeting northern Israel, explicitly linking the attack to Khamenei’s assassination. The Israeli military responded with wide-scale air raids on Beirut’s southern suburbs and the Bekaa Valley.
Ali Rizk, a Beirut-based security analyst, told Al Jazeera that Hezbollah’s shift was likely driven by an existential fear rather than just solidarity.
“Hezbollah believes that it’s going to be next on the list,” Rizk said, noting that the group still possesses a “formidable arsenal” despite recent losses. “Some officials have been expecting Israel to target leaders of the armed group after the attacks on Iran.”
By striking now, analysts suggest Hezbollah is trying to preempt a full-scale Israeli offensive. The group has been facing one-sided attacks by Israel since a ceasefire deal was reached in November, 2024.
This escalation is rooted in a new strategic reality. Since the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s rule in Syria in late 2024, the “land bridge” that supplied Hezbollah has been severed. Without Tehran as a patron, the group risks losing its main financial and logistical lifeline.
Now with top leaders of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) dead alongside Khamenei, Hezbollah appears to have decided that waiting is no longer an option, even if it means fighting a war without a coordinated command.
The Houthis: Solidarity meets survival
In Yemen, the Houthis face an even more volatile calculus.
In his first televised address after the strikes on Iran began on Saturday, the group’s leader, Abdel-Malik al-Houthi, declared his forces “fully prepared for any developments”. Yet his rhetoric notably emphasised that “Iran is strong” and “its response will be decisive,” a phrasing that analysts interpreted as an attempt to deflect the immediate burden of war away from the Houthis.
The Houthis are under immense pressure. While they have successfully disrupted Red Sea shipping and fired missiles at Tel Aviv, they now face a renewed threat at home.
The internationally recognised Yemeni government, having won a power struggle against southern separatists, has sensed a shift in momentum. Defence Minister Taher al-Aqili recently declared: “The index of operations is heading towards the capital, Sanaa,” which the Houthis control. The statement signalled a potential ground offensive to retake Houthi territory.
This places the Houthis in a bind. While Houthi negotiator Mohammed Abdulsalam recently met with Iranian official Ali Larijani in Muscat, Oman, to discuss “unity of the arenas”, the reality on the ground is different. Engaging in a war for Iran could leave the Houthis’ home front exposed to government forces backed by regional rivals.
“Expanding the circle of targeting will only result in expanding the circle of confrontation,” the Houthi-affiliated Supreme Political Council warned in a statement that threatened escalation but also implicitly acknowledged the high cost of a wider war.
Iraq: The internal time bomb
Perhaps nowhere is the dilemma more acute than in Iraq, where the lines between the state and the “resistance” are dangerously blurred.
Iran-aligned militias, many of which operate under the state-sanctioned Popular Mobilisation Forces, are now caught in a direct standoff with the US. Tensions have simmered since late 2024 when Ibrahim Al-Sumaidaie, an adviser to Iraq’s prime minister, revealed that Washington had threatened to dismantle these groups by force, a warning that led to his resignation under pressure from militia leaders.
Today, that threat looms larger than ever. Unlike Hezbollah or the Houthis, these groups are technically part of the Iraqi security apparatus. A retaliation from Iraqi soil would not just risk a militia war but also a direct conflict between the US and the Iraqi state.
With the IRGC commanders who once mediated these tensions now dead, the “restraining hand” is gone. Isolated militia leaders may now decide to strike US bases of their own accord, dragging Baghdad into a war the government has desperately tried to avoid.
Resistance without a head
Khamenei’s assassination has essentially shattered the command-and-control structure of the “axis of resistance”.
The network was built on three pillars: the ideological authority of the supreme leader, the logistical coordination of the IRGC and the geographic connection through Syria. Today, all three are broken.
Yet, as Monday’s events showed, a broken command structure does not necessarily mean silence. It means chaos.
“The most important damage to Iran’s security interests is the severing of the ground link,” Dareini said. With Khamenei gone, the “spiritual link” is also severed.
What remains is a fragmented landscape. In Lebanon, Hezbollah is launching preemptive strikes to survive. In Yemen, the Houthis face a potential domestic offensive. In Iraq, militias risk collapsing the state they live in.
When the dust settles in Tehran, the region will face a dangerous unpredictability. The “axis of resistance” is no longer a coordinated army. It is a collection of angry, heavily armed militias, each calculating its own survival in a world where the orders from Tehran have suddenly stopped coming– and where Tehran explicitly says it battles alone.
