Guinea elections: Who’s running and what’s at stake?

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Four years after military leader General Mamady Doumbouya led a coup that toppled the civilian government of the day and derailed the country’s fragile democracy, Guineans will head to the polls in a Sunday vote that will likely not deliver any surprises.

The young military leader, known for his signature wraparound sunglasses, is widely expected to win the vote on December 28 and solidify his hold on power in the resource-rich West African nation, as key opposition figures have been barred from participating.

How does voting work?

About 6.7 million eligible voters (those over 18 years) are registered for the elections. There are 23,662 polling stations.

The president will be elected by an absolute majority vote through a two-round system, for a seven-year term.

A high turnout is expected based on the 87 percent of voters who turned up for a referendum held in September. That vote was largely seen as a test of Doumbouya’s popularity, and more than 90 percent voted “yes” to a new constitution that allows military leaders to run for office, extends the presidential mandate from five to seven years, and creates a senate, of which a third of members would be presidential appointees.

Nine presidential candidates have been cleared to run, although the major opposition challengers who stood a real chance were barred on technicalities. None of the eight opposition candidates has a solid political footing. Candidates took part in an evening series on state television where they debated each other’s proposals weeks ahead of the vote.

Campaigns opened on November 28 and closed at midnight on December 25. Doumbouya largely stayed off the campaign trail, although his ministers travelled across the country, urging civilians and the military to vote at large rallies that featured musicians and attracted young people. One private businessman also held a carnival in Conakry to support Doumbouya this week.

About 10,000 election observers from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the European Union, the United Nations, the International Organisation of the Francophonie and several other organisations will be present.

Who has been excluded?

Cellou Dalein Diallo, 73

Diallo, a longtime opposition leader, was going to be Doumbouya’s most formidable challenger. The former prime minister (2004-2006) heads the Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG). He contested the 2010 and 2015 elections but was beaten by Alpha Conde, his archrival, on both occasions. When the coup leaders seized power in 2021, Diallo welcomed the move and pledged his willingness to work with them in restoring democracy.

However, Doumbouya’s government launched corruption proceedings against him in relation to the sale of Air Guinee, the national carrier, back in 2002, when Diallo was transport minister. Diallo, who accused the military ruler of a witch-hunt to block him from elections, has since been forced into exile in neighbouring Senegal and in France. In August, his party was one of three suspended because documents they submitted had “substantial deficiencies”, according to the Ministry of Territorial Administration, which is in charge of the elections, as opposed to an independent elections commission. Diallo was also disqualified based on his residency, as the new constitution adopted in September requires that presidential candidates have their primary residence in the country.

Alpha Conde, 87

Conde’s decision to run for a third term in 2021, after serving two five-year terms, threw Guinea into chaos and led to the September coup.

A longtime opponent of military regimes in the country, Conde promised to strengthen democracy upon his election in 2010, after polls that, despite being turbulent, were also a chance for the country to depart from decades of dictatorship. He was the first Guinean president to be elected in a free election. His government oversaw improvements in the mining sector and managed the 2014 Ebola epidemic, but is also accused of gross corruption and mismanagement.

In March 2020, he pushed through a referendum that allowed him to seek two more terms, claiming it reset his limit. The move led to widespread protests across the country that turned violent as the police and army attempted to shut them down, leading to dozens of deaths. The elections in October 2020 were held amid the turmoil, and at least 30 people were killed during the polls. In September 2021, Conde was deposed and arrested by a group of soldiers led by Doumbouya, whom he had appointed in 2018 as head of the elite Special Forces Group. He is believed to be in exile in Turkiye. Conde’s Rally of the Guinean People (RPG) was one of the parties suspended in August because it had “not fulfilled the obligations required,” according to the authorities.

Sidya Toure, 80

The former prime minister (1996-1999) is another well-known opposition figure who has been sidelined. He came third in the historic 2010 elections with 13 percent of the vote. Toure is the leader of the Union of Republican Forces (UFR). He has lived in exile in the Ivory Coast for several years and was disqualified from the elections based on his foreign residency.

Who is running?

General Mamadou Doumbouya, 41

The incumbent is the clear favourite to win the elections and is accused by opposition parties and activists of using the vote as a power grab to secure and legitimise his rule.

Doumbouya took power in the September 2021 coup, deposing then-president Alpha Conde after months of tension and protests. He promised to end the chaos and return the country to democratic rule.

The regional ECOWAS bloc has pressured Doumbouya to present a fast transition timeline. The military ruler initially promised an 18-month transition, but then remained largely uncompliant, missing two deadlines. However, ECOWAS, while keeping up pressure, has not been overly critical. Doumbouya has remained open to staying in the bloc, unlike his compatriots in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, who, under pressure to hold elections after their coups, rebuffed ECOWAS by leaving the alliance and creating a new union in January. ECOWAS is wary of antagonising Doumbouya and possibly causing Guinea to join the rival alliance.

Doumbouya’s government has, since 2022, banned protests, restricted local news organisations, and targeted activists in arrests, according to local news reports and civil society groups. A week before the elections, authorities also blocked Facebook.

Supporters of the military ruler say he has boosted infrastructure, with more than 2,250 kilometres of new roads built, schools renovated, and new hospitals built. They also point to the launch of the mega Simandou iron ore mine project, which saw its first iron ore exports this year, 30 years after it was licensed to operate.

The project has attracted international interest. Analysts say that’s partly why Western governments, with whom Doumbouya has maintained a friendly stance even as Conakry ramps up trade with China, are careful not to criticise his hold on power.

With campaign posters of the smiling Doumbouya splashed across Conakry’s streets and in the city of Kankan, his political stronghold, the president has promised to improve the infrastructure gains in the past four years. He has also pledged to build better democratic institutions; fight corruption; boost health and education access; and support women and youth. He is running under the Generation for Modernity and Development, or GMD movement.

Others are:

Aboulaye Yero Balde – a former education minister under Alpha Conde and ex-World Bank economist. Balde is running under the Front for Democracy in Guinea (FRONDEG).
Makale Camara – the only female candidate and president of the Front for National Alliance (FAN) party. She has promised better access to water and electricity, and wants to diversify the economy beyond mining. She was a former foreign minister from 2016 to 2017.
Faya Millimono – the head of the Liberal Bloc party. He was critical of Conde and initially supported the military coup, but has since antagonised Doumbouya.
Ibrahima Abe Sylla – the former energy minister under the military government, is running under the New Generation for the Republic party. He previously ran in 2010 and 2020.
Abdoulaye Kourouma – the 2020 presidential candidate and former parliamentarian, is running under the Rally for Renaissance and Development party.
Mohamed Nabe – an electoral expert who has formed part of regional electoral missions. He will run under the Alliance for Renewal and Progress party.
Elhadj Bouna Keita – a former member of parliament, he leads the Rally for a Prosperous Guinea (RPG).
Mohamed Cherif Tounkara – is running as an independent candidate.

What are the key issues?

Mining and the economy

Guinea remains a poor country despite its immense mineral wealth. Literacy levels are low and about half of the working population is unemployed, according to the International Labour Organization.

Much hope for change hinges on restructuring in the mining sector to unlock lucrative deals for the country. The Simandou mine, which Chinese and Australian firms own stakes in, is of particular importance, as Doumbouya’s government is banking on it to provide enough money to bankroll more infrastructure and amenities. The first shipment from the mines left for China early in December, after a newly constructed railway allowed for ore to be transported out of the remote Simandou highlands to the port of Conakry. While many Guineans are hopeful about the proceeds, there are also fears that persistent government corruption could drain the revenue. Many are also concerned about the fate of the thousands of construction workers employed at the mine once building projects are complete.

Justice for September 28 stadium massacre

In 2009, former military leader Moussa Dadis Camara, who seized power in 2008, oversaw the massacre of protesters who gathered in their tens of thousands at a stadium in Conakry to call for democratic rule. Camara’s forces opened fire on the demonstrators in an attempt to suppress them. Many were shot, while others were crushed in the ensuing stampede. At least 156 people were killed, and 109 women and girls were raped during the massacre. It was one of the country’s most tragic events.

Many Guineans have long hoped for justice and a trial against Camara, who fled to Burkina Faso after a coup and assassination attempt months later. Doumbouya’s government launched a 22-month-long trial against him, and a court convicted Camara and seven of his military commanders in July 2024. Rights groups hailed the verdict as a historic moment for justice. Camara was handed a 20-year sentence, and he and the others were ordered to pay compensation to the victims of the massacre. However, this March, just a year later, Doumbouya pardoned Camara on alleged health grounds – to the disappointment of victims and rights campaigners.

Although the government has taken on the task of compensation, with a first phase of reparations under way, there’s a lingering feeling among many victims that justice has not been fully served.

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