US-Israel war on Iran upends Europe’s summer holiday travel patterns

London, United Kingdom – Nadia Waleed had set off from London with her husband and three daughters for a holiday in Bali, before continuing on to Pakistan, with stopovers in Dubai.

“A family holiday with multiple flights and stopovers is stressful at the best of times, but the situation in Iran resulted in multiple last minute changes in flight schedules by [the Emirates] airline,” she told Al Jazeera about her trip this summer.

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Days before flying, her return flight schedule had changed. A three-hour stopover in Dubai was now extended to 18 hours.

“A two-hour-long phone marathon ensued whereby we managed to get earlier return flights from Pakistan which reduced the layover duration,” she said.

But the next day, one family member’s schedule was changed again – their return flight was pushed back by a month.

“We have also had emails informing us of changes in flight details during our holiday by one hour, requiring rearranging of taxis and pickups,” she said.

Her experience is a small, personal illustration of a larger disruption.

The United States-Israel war on Iran has forced airlines to abandon huge stretches of airspace, sending commercial traffic on longer, costlier detours and upending the plans of families, retirees and honeymooners.

Nadia Waleed said her holiday plans were changed several times [Courtesy of Nadia Waleed]

At Trailfinders, a UK travel company, the shockwaves arrived in bulk.

“The Middle East conflict meant Trailfinders had thousands of bookings to rearrange or cancel,” said Nikki Davies of the agency, pointing to Dubai, Qatar and Abu Dhabi, destinations in their own right but also crucial transit points for travellers heading on to Australia and Asia.

Once the UK’s Foreign Office advised against travel to the region, which invalidated insurance if ignored, the clients postponed in droves.

That advisory has since been lifted, and Davies described “incredible pent-up demand” for travel through the Gulf again.

But the disruption appears to have shifted where people choose to travel to.

“Europe is proving extremely popular as it’s closer to home and the standout destinations are Italy, Spain, Greece and Norway,” she said.

TUI, Europe’s largest tour operator, is seeing the same shift at scale.

“Traditionally, 75 percent of the European travellers at TUI book their summer holidays in Europe,” said TUI spokesperson Aage Dunhaupt. “This trend for package holidays is even stronger this year and shows that holidaymakers flock to the all-inclusive and protected package holidays.”

‘Almost like COVID’

The European Union Aviation Safety Agency this week told airlines to avoid Jordanian airspace after renewed attacks, extending its existing warning against Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE and Oman until August 31.

British Airways has suspended flights to Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv, and will permanently drop its London-Jeddah route. Its twice-daily London-Riyadh service will be cut to once a day when it resumes in August. Virgin Atlantic has suspended its London-Dubai route through the coming winter season.

For independent travel agent Assra Satti, the anxiety showed up in the fine print. A family booking a July holiday to Vietnam via Istanbul wanted written guarantees before committing, wondering if they would be rerouted or reimbursed should the war disrupt their flights.

Travel agent Assra Satti said clients are demanding more guarantees given the uncertainties surrounding travel [Courtesy of Assra Satti]

Satti secured written confirmation of both options, and the family flew as planned. As the holiday approached, the same clients expressed concern about a rumour circulating on social media that jet fuel surcharges might land them with an unexpected bill after booking. Satti’s advice to nervous clients has been to book everything as a single protected package, even at a slightly higher price, “because then the whole holiday is protected”.

The mechanics of avoiding conflict airspace are counted in tonnes of fuel and hours in the air, according to Moiz Hamid, a pilot with Pakistan International Airlines.

He says rerouted flights typically add an extra one to two hours flying west, and burn an additional 2,500 to 7,000kg (5,500-15,500lb) of fuel depending on the aircraft, a cost some airlines offset by cutting cargo payload.

The rerouting has also brought congested frequencies, GPS jamming and heavier workloads for pilots and controllers alike.

“Flying a longer, safer alternate route does come with its own risk, the biggest factor being unfamiliarity,” Hamid says. “In normal situations you’re not flying through certain areas, but in these unusual circumstances you have to be rerouted through areas that would be deemed safe by your company, your operator and your regulator. The fatigue does go up, the extended workload does go up.”

Hamid pointed to the downing of Azerbaijan Airlines flight 8243 in December 2024, blamed on navigational errors from military jamming, as a reminder of the stakes when aircraft stray off course.

The ripple effects also reach destinations with no direct stake in the conflict.

Tourism operator Jean-Marc Flambert said those who depend on holidaymakers, such as people working in the food industry, are also suffering [Courtesy of Jean-Marc Flambert]

London based Sri Lankan hotelier Jean-Marc Flambert said that in the case of Sri Lanka, 77 of the 87 weekly flights connecting Europe to the island run through the Middle East, and nearly all of them were disrupted.

“It was almost like COVID in the initial stages,” he said.

Bookings for this summer are down 20 to 30 percent industry-wide, a blow that lands hardest on those who depend on tourism.

Flambert recalled a fisherman turning up at his hotel with a catch, but nobody was there to eat.

“What does a fisherman do? He’d just dig a hole and chuck it.”

Families with young children, he said, have been the most likely to cancel outright, while young couples and retirees have proved far more willing to take the risk of a longer layover or a missed connection.

It is a small mercy for operators like his, patching together new routes through Thailand, Singapore and India to keep clients coming.

Flambert is personally weighing that calculation this summer. He has booked a family holiday to Tanzania through Emirates, and has been holding off paying the hotel for as long as he can.

“What if something happens?” he said. “We’ve not done a package, so obviously if the airline changes and the hotel is still there, we’re going to lose our hotel money.”

His children are aged 15 and 18, “old enough to manage”, so he is prepared to take the risk.

“If I get stuck in Dubai for three days, I have friends in Dubai, I’ll just go and stay at a friend’s house, it’s not a big deal.”

But he is clear about where the real cost lands.

“If you lose $500, it’s going to hurt, but it’s not going to kill you,” he said. “The affected countries are feeling that. So let’s be a little bit empathetic.”